Effect of Wind-Measurement Height and Photovoltaic Area on the Least-Cost Hybrid Supply of a University Critical Bus in Kaduna, Nigeria: A Screening-Level Techno-Economic Assessment

Abstract

This screening-level assessment tests whether small wind belongs in a least-cost hybrid plant for a critical-facility bus at Kaduna State University (10.52° N, 7.44° E), and whether that answer depends on wind-measurement height and a limit on photovoltaic capacity. An open hourly load-following model used NASA POWER (2026) meteorology for 2022 and a synthesised critical load (peak 97.1 kW; 477 MWh yr−1). A generic turbine curve gave capacity factors of 4.8% at 10 m (mean 3.41 m s−1) and 19.2% at 50 m (mean 5.34 m s−1). Among 1,350 candidate grid combinations retained only if the loss-of-power-supply probability was at most 1%, the unconstrained cost minimum under the assumed prices was 320 kW of photovoltaics, 800 kWh of storage and 40 kW of diesel, with no wind: levelised cost 0.190 USD kWh−1, renewable fraction 91.4%, and diesel CO2 40 t yr−1, against 0.351 USD kWh−1 and 505 t yr−1 for diesel only. Capping photovoltaics at 200 kW brought 40 kW of wind into the optimum and raised the levelised cost to 0.215 USD kWh−1 within the explored design space. The wind-selection result is conditional on the synthetic load, screening costs and single-year resource series; a 10 m mean should not be used as hub-height input for this site.